(MartinArmstrong) “Politicians everywhere are sitting on their hands because they believe that if they do nothing and maintain the status quo mixed with austerity to save the bankers somehow we will grow our way out of this one as before. The problem is they fail to distinguish between a private generated financial crisis and a Sovereign Debt Crisis where they are the problem.

The people are just not to be given a right to vote on any of this and if the system can grow out of it, in two years everyone will forget about it – that’s the plan. To clarify why I have been critical of the austerity in Greece and the property taxes, Schumpeter describes the Business Cycle as a force of Creative Destruction. These are periods of tremendous economic transition. It is one thing to impose property taxes and insist upon government reducing its work force that sound like solid conservative economic advice for Greece. However, that presumes there are private sector jobs waiting in the wings.  What is taking place in Greece is that there is no private sector alternatives at this time. Laying people off is one thing. To impose then property taxes that are due irrespective of income then subjects those same people to massive waves of foreclosures for failure to pay the tax. The US Great Depression was so bad NOT because of the stock market crash, but (1) the sovereign debt crisis that wiped out savings and reduced capital in the USA contributing to over 3000 bank failures, and (2) the Dust Bowl that eliminated agrarian jobs when agriculture accounted for 40% of the civil work force resulting in the ‘hobo’ lifestyle.  It was WWII that provided the  ‘transition’ reducing unemployment and transformed farmers into skilled labor. The Great Depression after the Panic of 1857 was followed 4 years later by the US Civil War, which was also the ‘transition’ at that time relieving unemployment.

Today, there is no plan. There is no transition, only austerity. The politicians are doing NOTHING whatsoever for any reforms they reject because it would change the way they have been doing business since WWII. Italy’s debt is bigger than Spain, Portugal, and Greece combined.  It is too big to be bailed out and there is no PLAN B to even address what happens if sitting on their hands blows up in everyone’s face? Stay away from ALL government debt! This is a wave of Creative Destruction. We are in a transition to a completely new world ahead.”

Full Story: Italian Head of State Pledges to Resign Schumpeter’s Creative Destruction? (MartinArmstrong)

(MartinArmstrong) “Government Is Living in a State of Denial.  They speak, see & hear nothing of a debt crisis. .. Italy is the third largest bond issuer and nobody in government has figured out that this a Sovereign Debt Crisis yet?  What Government FAILS to understand is they are the PROBLEM!

Because government is the PROBLEM, they live in a state of denial and cannot correct the situation for they cannot objectively look at themselves. Instead, they attack the people. Fannie Mae asks for $7.8bn as losses continue. Morgan Stanley has been accused over mortgage bond issues and MF Global goes bust exposing the truth that SEC & CFTC never audit the NY banks and are incapable of detecting that they may be trading with client’s money.

.. the whole theory upon which the banking system has been constructed is unsound. Banks take short-term and demand deposits and lend long-term. When a financial crisis unfolds, a run on banks emerges because people want their money. Since the bank’s obligations are short-term to demand but their assets are loans of medium to long-term, they don’t have the cash and fail.  For you see, banks were not supposed to lend out your money.  ..  Banks began as merely a place to store your assets. They were not intended to lend your money out to someone else. When they realized they could make profit doing so, the scam eventually became the standard operational procedure. Formulae were then devised to calculate at any one time how much ‘reserves’ did they have to retain for normal operations. That was worked out with experience settling on 6%. So if they retained 6% of deposits as cash, they could cover normal business withdrawals with no problem. The problem became during a crisis and everyone wanted their cash and the bank simply does not have that cash and you end up with a bank run. It is ironic that what began as a scam simply became institutionalized. This is WHY the entire financial system is dependent upon CONFIDENCE!

What is unraveling even more quickly is the fear that banks will be hit with panic runs because of their holdings in sovereign debt. After a 50% haircut in Greek bonds, now it has become trendy not only to sell Italian bonds but also to publicly announce they have done so to try to maintain CONFIDENCE of their depositors.  The very reason politicians have suppressed the right of the people to vote and have forced austerity upon the people, has been to maintain the confidence of their bankers. But in the end game, the bankers exist based upon the confidence of the people in their sound management of their deposits.

.. The people may be shut out of the polls denied democracy when it is needed most, but the FREE MARKETS will respond as capital votes in its own self-interest that does not match the political nonsense.

SEQUENCE OF AN ECONOMIC PANDEMIC

At first blush, how capital responds depends entirely upon the (1) monetary system and (2) the freedom of capital movement. In a closed economy, the first reaction is to buy ALL tangible assets. These tend to be everything from durable commodities (metals), art, coins, stamps, and gold (assuming it is not a gold standard of some sort). This is the category I refer to as  ‘moveable assets’. The second tier of assets tend to be real estate that I refer to as ‘fixed non-movable assets’ meaning their value is limited to the territorial jurisdiction of the nation. In a non-communist nation, stocks and corporate bonds will also attract capital as a safe place to park funds.  In an open-economy where capital is free to leave, then the first blush is to FLEE to a different land in which case the local assets, including stocks and corporate bonds, will initially crash. This is typically indicated most pronouncedly in the collapse of the local currency against world currencies or in this case rise in the dollar vs decline in euro. They eventually swing back ONLY after the crisis manifests in a new currency or a debased/devaluation of the local currency takes place. The capital-flows will the swing back in the opposite direction.

Under today’s circumstances, the first blush response will be for capital to flee Europe and run to the United States as a safe port parking in US government paper. This is likely to further the deflationary effects within the United States by ensuring interest rates remain low as they did during the Great Depression for the same reason. However, banks are living off of the largest spreads perhaps in modern history so while rates of interest on cash will decline further and move in real terms NEGATIVE after inflation, banks should NOT be expected to lend money more easily. They will maintain their huge profit margins. Therefore, the first blush of the  Sovereign Debt Crisis in an open society tends to be currency based rather than even movable assets.

During the inflationary boom into 1929, gold declined in purchasing power for assets were rising against gold. During the collapse, the value of money rose (gold) as assets declined. Under a gold standard, the value of gold in fact DECLINES with inflation and RISES with deflation.

So for now, we are in the first blush mode where capital will fee to the dollar rather than assets and that may confuse the hell out of a lot of people. Therefore, under the current conditions, gold need not rise on the first blush for the bulk of capital will flee to the dollar. On the second swing where capital flees all currency, then we will see the Private vs Public assets manifest meaning they will rise as expressed in terms of currency.”

Full Story: Government is Living in a State of Debt Denial (MartinArmstrong)

Click for Nov 11, 2011 Martin Armstrong Radio Interview (FSN)

If this is accurate, it’s pretty frightening stuff, right along the lines of complete “New World Order” totalitarian domination over all of Europe. Open to hearing any thoughts to the contrary…

(abgeordneten) “EU: Treaty of debt (ESM) – stop it now!” Deputies on Check.de – The EU is threatening to transfer a debt-based Union of turning a liability community. In addition, the fiscal and budgetary powers of national parliaments will be given to an EU-Governors. This is based on the only recently become known to the draft treaty called “European Stability Mechanism (ESM)”, decide on the members of the German Bundestag probably after the summer break of 2011. German tax money to answer for the debt policies of other EU countries. We should work to make the banks any losses. The taxpayer is prescribed compulsory solidarity. The banks are on a voluntary basis here. The citizens of this free will not to admit you. We have to pay. The ESM contract can not therefore pass through the German Parliament”

Key Details of ESM Accord

• Article 8 says “Authorized Capital stock 700 billion Euros”
• Article 9 says “ESM members irrevocably and unconditionally undertake to pay capital calls on them within 7 days”
• Article 10 allows the ESM board of governors to “change the authorized capital and amend article 8 accordingly”
• Article 27 says ESM shall enjoy “immunity from every form of judicial process”. Thus the ESM can sue member countries but no one can challenge it. No governments, parliament or any other body or laws apply to the ESM or its organization.
• Article 30 says “Governors, alternate governors, directors, alternate directors, the managing director and staff shall be immune from legal process with respect to acts performed by them (…) and shall enjoy inviolability in respect of their official papers and documents”

Site Link: Initiative Stoppt EU-Schuldenunion (ESM-Vertrag)!

(Mish) “There are no independent reviewers and no existing laws apply. Thus Europe’s national budgets will be in the hands of one single, unelected body that is accountable to no one and immune from all legal actions. Is this the future of the EU or will the German supreme court and other governments put an end to it?”

Full Story: Treaty of Debt – An Eye Opening Video on the ESM Bailout Mechanism (Mish)

(Mish) “Klaus Regling, head of the European Financial Stability Facility has proposed European Bailout Fund Could ‘One Day’ Issue Bonds in Yuan. Financial Suicide – Issuing bonds in another currency risks financial suicide. Currency movements add to the already massive potential risk of huge fluctuations because of leverage. Argentina blew up when it could no longer hold a peg in US dollars. While not a peg, imagine the losses on long-term bonds on a leveraged fund were the Yuan to rise by 33% vs. the Euro.”

Full Story: Financial Suicide: Head of EFSF says Bailout Fund Could One Day Issue Bonds in Yuan (Mish)

(ZeroHedge) ” ‘The most common mistake people make when buying property in Cyprus is to use a lawyer who has been introduced or recommended to them by a property developer,’ says Nigel Howarth who has helped foreign property buyers in Cyprus for more than 10 years. Foreign buyers are sitting ducks. They’re unaware of the local business culture and don’t suspect that their lawyers are in cahoots with developers–aided and abetted by the banks.”

“The country acceded to the Eurozone in 2008, but it’s already in a heap of trouble. A recent loan agreement with Russia of €2.5 billion will keep it afloat for a few months into 2012. Then it’s bailout and haircut time. On October 27, Standard & Poor’s cut Cyprus to BBB. The big problem: exposure of its banks to Greek sovereign, corporate, and bank debt. But not a word about the title-deed scandal and the billions that evaporated with it.”

“The scheme works this way: A developer takes out a mortgage on the land but hides it from foreign buyers. The bank retains the title deed as collateral. When the developer sells the property, the buyers’ lawyer, who is in cahoots with the developer, doesn’t perform a title search and doesn’t ‘discover’ the original mortgage. Buyers, assuming that their part of the property is free and clear, either pay cash or take out a mortgage. The developer pockets the money instead of paying off the original mortgage. The bank goes along because it can collect interest on one or two mortgages. But it retains the title deed as collateral for the original mortgage, and the buyer never sees it.”

“Throughout, buyers are told by everyone, including the government, that a buyer of immovable property is absolutely protected once the sales contract is lodged with the Cyprus Land Registry, and that they don’t need the title deed.”

“Proving fraud in court seems to be impossible. In a recent double-selling case, the judge ruled against the plaintiff: lodging of a sales contract at the Land Registry does not mean that buyers ‘automatically and in perpetuity have become the ‘owners’ (as they mean it) of the residence,’ she wrote. Hence, only possession of a title deed confers protection against double selling.”

“But the bank still holds the title deed as collateral for the original developer mortgage, and it has the right to foreclose on the property. Under normal circumstances, it takes a bank between 9 to 12 years to obtain control over the property. So banks extend and pretend until the developer goes broke. Then they move to recuperate a property that one or two other “owners” have paid for…. A nightmare. And no legal resolutions are in sight.”

“The numbers are stunning. In this tiny speck of a country with 803,000 people, about 130,000 properties are still awaiting their title deeds. If the average value of these homes is €150,000, then nearly €20 billion worth of properties might be in dispute, many of them with more than one mortgage and more than one owner.”

“The banks aren’t talking. And they aren’t writing down their assets to reflect the layers of mortgages that are worthless. Developers are going bust. The money they pocketed has disappeared. Expat homeowners who don’t hold title deeds are terrified of losing their homes, even if they paid cash. There are no legal processes in place to resolve this. Estimates of the missing money range from €3 to €6 billion—enough to take down all Cypriot banks. By comparison, the banks’ exposure to Greek sovereign debt is estimated to be €4.2 billion, of which only half will have to be written off.”

Full Story: Another Eurozone Country Bites the Dust (ZeroHedge)

One Big Lesson for Real-Estate Buyers: ALWAYS HAVE DEED IN HAND AND PROOF THAT IT’S REAL UPON CLOSING.  If someone or some entity tries to convince you it’s unnecessary, run for the exit and expect the coming debacle…

(WSJ) “Economists at Harvard University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology have just released what they claim to be the crystal ball of economics: a model for predicting a nation’s future growth more accurately than any other techniques out there.”

” ‘The Atlas of Economic Complexity’ ranks 128 nations based on their ‘productive knowledge’ — the skills, experience and general know-how that a given population acquires in producing certain goods. Countries with a high score in the report’s ‘economic complexity index’ have acquired years of knowledge in making a variety of products and goods and also have lots of room for growth. Essentially, the more collective knowledge a country has in producing goods, the richer it is — or will be.”

” ‘The essential theory … is that countries grow based on the knowledge of making things,’ Mr. Hausmann said in a phone interview. ‘It’s not years of schooling. It’s what are the products that you know how to make. And what drives growth is the difference between how much knowledge you have and how rich you are.’ ”

“Thus, nations with extensive productive knowledge but relatively little wealth haven’t met their potential, and will eventually catch up, Mr. Hausmann said. Those countries will experience the most growth through 2020, according to the report.”

Full story: ‘Complexity’ Predicts Nations’ Future Growth (WSJ)

(p63 of Study) ” The countries in the top ten of this ranking are Japan, Germany, Switzerland Sweden, Austria, Finland, Singapore, Czech Republic, the UK and Slovenia. Immediately after the top 10 we have France, Korea and the US. Of the top 20 countries, half are in Western Europe, 3 are in East Asia, and surprisingly 4 are in Eastern Europe. Israel and Mexico close the list of the top 20. These are countries with productive structures that are able to hold vast amounts of productive knowledge, and that manufacture an export a large number of sophisticated goods. At the bottom the economic complexity ranking we have Papua New Guinea, The Republic of Congo, Sudan, Angola and Mauritania. .. Interestingly the least complex countries in Western Europe are Portugal (35) and Greece (53), two countries who’s high income cannot be explained by either their complexity or their natural resource wealth. We do not think that this unrelated to their present difficulties: their current income has been propped up by massive capital inflows and, as these decline to more sustainable levels, the internal weaknesses come to the fore.”

(p69 of Study) “Here countries are sorted according to their per capita growth potential , which is estimated from the mismatch between a country’s current level of aggregate output (GDP per capita) and their level of economic complexity. China, India and Thailand are at the top of this ranking, since they are countries with economies that are remarkably complex, given their current level of income, and are expected to catch up faster than other developing nations. Next come Belarus, Moldova, Zimbabwe, Ukraine and Bosnia-Herzegovina, five countries where the current level of income is dramatically lower than what one would expect given their productive capabilities. This ranking shows that the two regions of the world where the potential of per capita growth is higher are East Asia and Eastern Europe. At the bottom of this ranking we have Sudan, Angola and Mauritania. These are developing countries where the complexity of their economies does not provide a basis for future economic growth, and, where changes in income are dominated by fluctuations in the price and volume of natural resource activities.”

Site for the Atlas Study: The Atlas of Economic Complexity (Mapping Paths to Prosperity)