vlogolution network » recession

CON-fidence is for CON-Men

Alexander P Morris — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 23:30:17 +0000

(Interloper) “Mr. Achuthan has been arguably the most accurate economic forecaster over the past five years and perhaps more importantly, is apparently using new analytical techniques and indicators – his emphasis on short and long-leading economic indicators is an excellent example. As he noted this morning, he was virtually alone among prominent economists in predicting a slowdown for the latter half of 2011, even if his predicted official recession has yet to become evident.”

” .. Achuthan presented his view that despite recent stronger data a US recession was still on tap, followed by Steve Liesman (fairly) asking ‘What about recent stronger GDP and consumer spending data’, followed by Achuthan saying that it didn’t matter because there is contagion in the data whereby more indicators were turning negative, followed by Liesman asking (again fairly) ‘like what’, and Achuthan responding something like ‘it doesn’t matter what, it matters how many‘. .. Liesman continued to badger his guest with ‘what do investors do today?’ ”

“.. Achuthan, in other words, is telling investors you something you will not hear from any employee of a brokerage or investment bank (well, maybe SocGen): wait.”

“.. My real issue is with those who will complain, ‘Why would I listen to that guy? He can’t even tell me which indicator he’s basing his conclusion on’. These people want THE ANSWER, stated bluntly, with conviction. To these people I respond; there is nothing you should be more afraid of than a market pundit who is certain.”

“Certainty is a tremendous marketing tool but there is a reason that the ‘con‘ in con man is short for confidence. Remember that it would only take one highly-leveraged trade to make someone wealthy enough to never work again. This implies that if the ‘certain’ dude (and its 99% of the time a dude) was really 100% sure, they would be leveraged 200-1 on the trade and, if it were successful, you’d never see them again outside of Saint Tropez-situated photos in celebrity magazines. In truth they are not sure – it’s a marketing gimmick to attract your investment dollars.”

“We are naturally attracted to certainty and we want to believe that someone has the answer because psychologically the random nature of markets is repellent. But in the end it is most often a trap and all investors should remember what a portfolio manager once told me: ‘People don’t like to hear it but we are in the probability game, not the certainty game.’ ”

Full Story: Liesman vs Achuthan and why investors should be terrified of certainty (Interloper)

Has Occupy Wall Street become exactly what its members were fighting against?

Alexander P Morris — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 23:41:29 +0000

Isn’t it amazing how, no matter at what level, it always seems to boil down to a small group of “elites” trying to control all the money, all the power, all the “stuff”, and all the other people…

(NYMag) ” .. we’ve had issues with the drummers too. They drum incessantly all day, and really loud.’ Facilitators spearheaded a General Assembly proposal to limit the drumming to two hours a day. ‘The drumming is a major issue which has the potential to get us kicked out,’ said Lauren Digion, a leader on the sanitation working group.”

“But the drums were fun. They brought in publicity and money. Many non-facilitators were infuriated by the decision and claimed that it had been forced through the General Assembly.”

” ‘They’re imposing a structure on the natural flow of music,’ said Seth Harper, an 18-year-old from Georgia. ‘The GA decided to do it … they suppressed people’s opinions. I wanted to do introduce a different proposal, but a big black organizer chick with an Afro said I couldn’t.’ ”

” To Shane Engelerdt, a 19-year-old from Jersey City and self-described former ‘head drummer,’ this amounted to a Jacobinic betrayal. ‘They are becoming the government we’re trying to protest,’ he said. ‘They didn’t even give the drummers a say … Drumming is the heartbeat of this movement. Look around: This is dead, you need a pulse to keep something alive.’ ”

“The drummers claim that the finance working group even levied a percussion tax of sorts, taking up to half of the $150-300 a day that the drum circle was receiving in tips. ‘Now they have over $500,000 from all sorts of places,’ said Engelerdt. ‘We’re like, what’s going on here? They’re like the banks we’re protesting.‘ ”

“All belongings and money in the park are supposed to be held in common, but property rights reared their capitalistic head when facilitators went to clean up the park, .. ” (For those supporting Communism, it always seems like a great idea ’til someone tries to take your stuff)

“In response to dissatisfaction with the consensus General Assembly, many facilitators have adopted a new ‘spokescouncil’ model, which allows each working group to act independently without securing the will of the collective. ‘This streamlines it,’ argued Zonkers. ‘The GA is unwieldy, cumbersome, and redundant.’ ”

Full Story: The Organizers vs. the Organized in Zuccotti Park (NYMag)

Join Ron Paul’s Drive to Audit the Fed and Shut it Down with HR 1207

Alexander P Morris — Tue, 26 May 2009 03:54:23 +0000

With many Americans slowly waking up to the reality that our government and banking system are entirely under the control of a criminal elite of private bankster crooks, Ron Paul has once again taken it upon himself to push for an audit of the Federal Reserve, the outcome of which would likely be so incomprehensibly shocking that the Fed may finally be forced to shut down for the greater good of our country and its citizens.

The Federal Reserve was originally created under the guise of being an “impartial” entity separate from the government that could be called upon to stabilize our economy in times of panic, while protecting and maintaining free market principles. The sick twisted irony is that the Fed is the precise antithesis of what free markets are really about. And since the Fed’s inception, it has done nothing but DESTABILIZE our economy with increased volatility by manipulating interest rates, along with leverage ratios used by the banks (in cahoots with those who control the Fed and the SEC).

It still boggles my mind that the SEC implemented the “Pattern Day Trader” rule to “protect the little guy” by forcing more active traders and investors to maintain at least $25,000 in a trading account or face severe trading restrictions. I guess the SEC also forgot that they came into power largely because a big part of the 1929 crash was caused by the extension of 10:1 credit to investors (which couldn’t have happened without the Fed’s easy money policies). So to make amends, the SEC goes on to serve and protect “the little guy” some more by allowing ONLY the largest (and most politically-connected) “too big to fail” investment banks pump up their balance sheets with over 40:1 leverage.

(read more...)

Score Cheap Booties $$$ Two Bucks for Your Bang!

Michelle — Mon, 18 May 2009 16:34:14 +0000

Being a frugalista, this two buck steal-of-a-deal was simply BOOTiful!

Don’t you just love that warm and fuzzy feeling you get all over when you bag an amazing deal? Okay, maybe you don’t but I sure DO! Ordinarily, I wouldn’t bother blogging about my boring buys but I found a real steal in a brick-and-mortar store in New York City (cheaper than a slice of freakin’ pizza) and had to pass on my savings!

I’m all “warm and fuzzy” over these booties that I bought at Laytner’s Linen & Home Store on Broadway for just TWO BUCKS a pair. That’s the price of one swipe on your MetroCard and helluva lot cheaper than the “recession special” at Gray’s Papaya. I have to say, these voluminous, fleece-lined, microfiber booties are only fashionable for the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man (as in GhostBusters fame) but keeping my tootsies cozy during the cold winter months (which seems like most of the year here in the Northeast) is a must.

It really does pay to be patient on purchases (however big or small) and late spring is a terrific time to find steals on items for next fall and winter. My booties originally retailed for $24.99 and I bought three pairs at $2/each for a total savings of $68.97. To top it off I snatched up an organic, cotton-sateen, 300 thread count Queen-sized sheet set for just $29.99 (originally marked $59).

Frugalistas and bargain hunters, what’s your latest score? Please share in the comments section below!

The Culprit Behind the Housing Bubble – abridged version

Alexander P Morris — Fri, 05 Oct 2007 22:00:00 +0000

“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold.” You’ll be shocked to learn that it was actually Alan Greenspan who authored these words, before he became Chairman of the private Federal Reserve Bank. What are the implications of his actions, contrary to his initial beliefs, into the future? We are only beginning to find out…

This abridged version contains only my synopsis, and does not include Alan Greenspan’s article on “Gold and Economic Freedom”. It does, however add an extra bit about 2007′s top performing Stock Market in Zimbabwe! It’s up over 12,000% in 12 months! Of course, the country’s consumer price index was rising (i.e., the purchasing power of currency declining), was also rising at a rate of 1,729% a year. So how much are all those Zimbabwees worth anyway, even in dollars?

The Real Culprit Behind the Housing Bubble – The Truth about Gold and Economic Freedom

Alexander P Morris — Tue, 02 Oct 2007 22:00:00 +0000

“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold.” You’ll be shocked to learn that it was actually Alan Greenspan who authored these words, before he became Chairman of the private Federal Reserve Bank. What are the implications of his many actions, contrary to his initial beliefs, into the future? We are only beginning to find out…