Martin Armstrong is the author of the Economic Confidence Model based on an 8.6 year business cycle theory inspired by the work of Nikolai Kondratieff.  Two years ago, the cycle once again accurately predicted the peak of the last economic cycle years in advance.  February 26, 2007 yielded some of the tightest credit spreads ever (easy access to credit), and the housing market had already begun its sharp decline.

He is currently in prison, indicted in 1999 on charges of defrauding Japanese investors.  His trial would have made more sense had it taken place in “Alice in Wonderland”.  Without getting into all the details here, just the fact that he was in jail for seven years for contempt of court should be enough to make any American cringe and wonder how that’s possible in the great ‘ole USA.  He finally caved in and plead guilty in 2007 to the fraud charge.  In return, he was given an additional five year prison term in addition to the seven he had already served!  Now, if this were any ordinary American schmo, perhaps he could be written off for one reason or another as just another guy with a crazy “they’re out to get me” sob story.  However, when you look deeper into the facts, and then consider that Mr. Armstrong was also one of the most respected financial research advisers to scores of powerful figures from central bank executives to heads of multinational corporations to heads of state, it really makes you wonder what’s going on with the “Rule of Law” — the real glue that holds our country together.  Armstrong even authored the most insightful and thorough analysis of the 1929 crash ever assembled on behalf of the Reagan administration in the ’80s.

From his jail cell, Martin Armstrong continues to write some of the most insightful and interesting essays I’ve come across on a variety of topics from market cycles, to rule of law, to the history and cycles of politics and war.  Since he has access to little more than an old typewriter (and no whiteout), you must understandably have a bit of patience with his “what I’m thinking about now” writing style.  Would I be showing my age if I can still recall the nightmare of using a typewriter for school papers?  It’s horrible.

Regardless, I’ve learned more useful knowledge about world history (and our own history) from Armstrong’s essays than I ever learned in school.  And it’s more fascinating than you can even imagine.  Everything’s been done and tried before.  And here’s some food for thought…  in the six thousand or so years of civilized history, can anyone find one example where socialism actually succeeded with a happy ending?  But I guess that’s why most politicians don’t bother to learn any of history’s lessons.  It would just interfere with their agendas and other questionable motives.

The following text is an excerpt from Martin Armstrong’s latest essay entitled “Objective vs Subjective Analysis” (pages 10-12).  I’ve also taken the liberty of making some small corrections here and there to make the text more readable while still hopefully maintaining Mr. Armstrong’s full meaning and intent.

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