(Interloper) “Mr. Achuthan has been arguably the most accurate economic forecaster over the past five years and perhaps more importantly, is apparently using new analytical techniques and indicators – his emphasis on short and long-leading economic indicators is an excellent example. As he noted this morning, he was virtually alone among prominent economists in predicting a slowdown for the latter half of 2011, even if his predicted official recession has yet to become evident.”

” .. Achuthan presented his view that despite recent stronger data a US recession was still on tap, followed by Steve Liesman (fairly) asking ‘What about recent stronger GDP and consumer spending data’, followed by Achuthan saying that it didn’t matter because there is contagion in the data whereby more indicators were turning negative, followed by Liesman asking (again fairly) ‘like what’, and Achuthan responding something like ‘it doesn’t matter what, it matters how many‘. .. Liesman continued to badger his guest with ‘what do investors do today?’ ”

“.. Achuthan, in other words, is telling investors you something you will not hear from any employee of a brokerage or investment bank (well, maybe SocGen): wait.”

“.. My real issue is with those who will complain, ‘Why would I listen to that guy? He can’t even tell me which indicator he’s basing his conclusion on’. These people want THE ANSWER, stated bluntly, with conviction. To these people I respond; there is nothing you should be more afraid of than a market pundit who is certain.”

“Certainty is a tremendous marketing tool but there is a reason that the ‘con‘ in con man is short for confidence. Remember that it would only take one highly-leveraged trade to make someone wealthy enough to never work again. This implies that if the ‘certain’ dude (and its 99% of the time a dude) was really 100% sure, they would be leveraged 200-1 on the trade and, if it were successful, you’d never see them again outside of Saint Tropez-situated photos in celebrity magazines. In truth they are not sure – it’s a marketing gimmick to attract your investment dollars.”

“We are naturally attracted to certainty and we want to believe that someone has the answer because psychologically the random nature of markets is repellent. But in the end it is most often a trap and all investors should remember what a portfolio manager once told me: ‘People don’t like to hear it but we are in the probability game, not the certainty game.’ ”

Full Story: Liesman vs Achuthan and why investors should be terrified of certainty (Interloper)

(Mish) “We will not get to see the precise wording of Prime Minister George Papandreou’s referendum because enough cowards in the Greek parliament in conjunction with blackmail by Merkel and Sarkozy have put an end to Papandreou’s regime. Thus, the on-off on-off Greek referendum is once again set to ‘off’ this time permanently.”

(NYTimes) “Europe’s leaders should have paid more attention to the distress of ordinary Greeks and less to the distress of well-heeled European bankers. Rather than trying to punish the ‘profligate,’ they should have thought about the consequences of condemning Greece to years of negative growth, soaring unemployment and rising taxes with nothing promised in return except that maybe, a decade from now, its ratio of debt to gross domestic product might get back down to the problematic levels of 2008-9.

Greece needs to make serious, painful reforms, including doing away with antiquated labor rules, streamlining a bloated public sector and selling off poorly managed state assets. Mr. Papandreou was already making real progress. But it was becoming impossible to keep laying off thousands of state workers while austerity choked off any realistic possibility of their finding private sector jobs or to keep slashing social benefits and services while the numbers of poor and unemployed surged.

It is late but, we hope, not too late to avert a full meltdown. Europe’s leaders need to renegotiate the pending Greek bailout deal to emphasize reform and growth over unremitting austerity and offer other bailout applicants the same approach. If they want any of the money lent to Greece paid back, Athens needs room to grow and earn.” — Greece on the Brink (NYTimes)

(Mish) “Democracy Dies to Protect Banks – Indeed, resolution of this mess has been 100% about how to bail out banks at taxpayer expense even though banks brought this mess onto themselves by treating sovereign debt as if it had zero risk. Worse yet, banks plowed into sovereign debt trades with massive leverage.”

Notice the tight convergence of all Eurozone country sovereign debt interest rates before 2009. European banks and other investors placed foolish bets anticipating little or no additional risk. They priced in virtually no risk premium holding Greek bonds over German bonds.

(Mish) “Merkozy and the EMU ought to be spending time on developing a full blown Euro exit strategy for nations because there has never been a currency union in history that has survived without a fiscal union in place at the same time.”

Full Story: Eurozone’s Waterloo; Papandreou Forced to Cancel Referendum; Democracy Dies to Protect Banks; Germany’s Dilemma: The Eurocratic Nanny Zone Vote (Mish)

(MartinArmstrong) “The most important aspect is the economy. Screw that up and you get war, depression, and starvation. We then elect a whole bunch of people to posts and automatically assume these people have the (1) real intelligence ABOVE average to comprehend such complex subjects, and (2) they understand the right thing to do. Where did we ever get these ideas? Most of the staff members employed by politicians are smarter than the people they work for. But unless they believe an economic crisis is possible, they will not even look at the issue.” — Martin Armstrong, Happy Days Are Here Again

(Mish) Great article by Mike Shedlock on the Greek/Euro Dilemma – “Is there any reason Greek voters should not be given a choice? I think not. They may not make a wise choice but what is the likelihood that political hacks and political opportunists will?”

“Take a good look at Iceland. In repeated attempts, political hacks (with banker’s interests in mind) attempted to sell Icelandic citizens into debt slavery. A referendum saved the day. Sadly, voters were forced to repeat the referendum, and once again voters made the correct decision. .. Iceland is now in full recovery simply because it told the EU and IMF to go to hell.”

“Greece does not have an easy way out. However, its problems are no doubt far worse than if it told the EU and the IMF to go to hell two years ago.  Greece should have gone bankrupt long ago. Heck, it should not be in the EU in the first place, and the EU is primarily to blame even though Greece lied to get in.”

“(PeterTchir) If a leader in the Middle East finally gave into months of protest and decided to give the people a real say on an important issue, the Western leaders would be rejoicing. .. But if a fellow Western leader dares let his people express their wishes more directly than via “their representatives” they are all shocked and outraged. In the meantime other Greek politicians are busy taking advantage to gain power rather than helping their citizens.”

“(PaterTenebrarum) The eurocracy is at its heart deeply undemocratic – if it were up to the ‘technocrats’ leading it, national subsidiarity would have long ago become a relic of the past and democratic interference with their plan to erect a socialist super-state would be kept to a bare minimum. .. This can be seen by the fate suffered by previous referendums: when the Irish and French e.g. said ‘no’ and ‘non’ respectively to the Lisbon treaty, the referendums were simply repeated to get the ‘right’ result. As Stalin once sagely remarked, it doesn’t matter who votes for what anyway – what matters is who counts the votes. So far, the eurocrats have always gotten the results that they wanted, by hook or by crook.

Shall I tell you the truly terrifying thing about the EU? It’s not the absence of democracy in Brussels, or the ease with which Eurocrats swat aside referendum results. It’s the way in which the internal democracy of the member states is subverted in order to sustain the requirements of membership. ..

I wish I could convey the sheer horror that his proposal provoked in Brussels. The first rule of the Eurocracy is “no referendums”. Brussels functionaries believe that their work is too important to be subject to the prejudices of hoi polloi (for once, the Greek phrase seems apposite). Referendums are always seen as irresponsible; but, at a time when the euro is teetering on the brink, Papandreou’s proposal was seen as an act of ingratitude bordering on treason. ..

Eurocrats are prepared to pay any price rather than admit that the single currency was a mistake – or, more precisely, to expect their peoples to pay, since EU officials are exempt from national taxation. The peripheral countries are to suffer poverty, unemployment and emigration, the core countries perpetual tax rises, so that supporters of the euro can save face.”

“(DanielHannan) Euro-enthusiasts in Brussels and in Athens are ready to bring down an elected government rather than allow a referendum. Yet the funny thing is that Papandreou is a Euro-enthusiast. He fervently wants to remain in the euro, and had been planning to campaign for a Yes vote. His sin, in the eyes of Brussels, was not to hold the wrong opinions, but to be too keen on democracy. ..”

“Whose Skin Are We Saving? No eurocrat or politician outside of Greece gives a rat’s ass about helping Greece. The only skin they want to save is their own.  That realization coupled with my earlier proposal that Papandreou was tired of beatings, meetings, and riots is by far the most likely reason Papandreou decided to “walk away” from the mess via referendum.”

Full Story: In Praise of Papandreou’s Referendum Decision; Eurocrats Terrified of Democracy; Parade of Cowards (Mish)

As usual, this is more about bailing out the banks and protecting those who made foolish investments above all else.  It’s also interesting to note that while private bond holders of Greek debt was expected to take a 50% haircut, my understanding is that the ECB (who currently owns about half of all outstanding Greek bonds) would still be holding their Greek bonds at par.

This is not to say Greece is not also at fault.  There’s plenty of blame to go around.  However, to this day the War Reparations forced upon Germany after World War I are still largely blamed for leading Germany into hyperinflation and the eventual rise of Hitler.  And perhaps Germany eventually owning and/or controlling most of Greece’s key assets to pay back its debts is not something those “pesky” Greek citizens are willing to accept quite that easily.

Regarding Papandreou’s recent changes to his top military staff, while only Papandreou and his closest confidants know exactly what’s going on, given he called a referendum to offer the people a “say”, it would seem unlikely he is considering a “military coup”.  I would speculate his motive would more likely be to assure that the military will remain loyal to the “best interests of Greece”, as opposed to the “best interests of the European Union”.

(MartinArmstrong) “The most important aspect is the economy. Screw that up and you get war, depression, and starvation. We then elect a whole bunch of people to posts and automatically assume these people have the (1) real intelligence ABOVE average to comprehend such complex subjects, and (2) they understand the right thing to do. Where did we ever get these ideas? Most of the staff members employed by politicians are smarter than the people they work for. But unless they believe an economic crisis is possible, they will not even look at the issue.” — Martin Armstrong, Happy Days Are Here Again

This awesome and quick video explains quantitative easing in a simple and easy way for everyone to understand, and it’ll keep you laughing (or crying) the whole way through…

One note, granted this video hits heavily on Ben Bernanke, it’s certainly not all his fault – not by a long shot.  Living beyond our means can only go on so far, and politicians are more than happy to take advantage of public sentiment to fulfill their own agendas and help their “friends” through gargantuan spending programs and greater controls enacted under the guise of serving the “greater good”.

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Photo art by Michelle.

The economy might be in the can but all hail the Commander of Cheese!

Inarguably, the current state of the economy is grim if not hopeless. Economic forecasters expect unemployment numbers to continue to rise. For those of you fretting over a pink slip fear not! Entrepreneurism in the fast food industry is alive and well in the greater Washington D.C. metro area. If you’re just a short drive from the District, consider cashing in a last unemployment check, tying on an apron and start flippin’ burgers. Say what?! Yup, flipping burgers for the politicos along the Potomac is the new cash cow. Should Prez Obama and entourage stop in at your greasy spoon for a bite the overnight over lunch publicity could have you bringing home the bacon.

(read more...)]]> http://www.vlogolution.com/hot/2009-06-18-best-recession-biz-flipping-burgers-over-obama/feed/ 2 http://www.vlogolution.com/hot/2009-05-21-what-the-fudge-twenty-two-dollar-brownie-mix/ http://www.vlogolution.com/hot/2009-05-21-what-the-fudge-twenty-two-dollar-brownie-mix/#comments Thu, 21 May 2009 21:45:57 +0000 http://www.vlogolution.com/hot/?p=478

$22 bucks for a box of designer brownie mix? Only a DOPE would pay that much!

You can have your cake and eat it too, but it might cost you!

Candy connoisseur and entrepreneur Dylan Lauren (daughter of fashion mogul, Ralph Lauren), of Dylan’s Candy Bar, is banking sweetly from her decadent treats and do-it-yourself sweets.  Alas, these costly, take-home coolinary kits, like the Chocolate Brownie Mix, have a biting price tag of $22 clams!  You’d expect a boxed mix to shoot you over the moon for laying down that kind of mean green.  The packaging says it’s made with seventy percent Belgian chocolate.  Surely, for that much cash the other thirty percent must contain hash?!  Nope, unfortunately it includes no dope but you’d have to be high to buy.  Or go dutch or broke!

As for my fudge fix, I’ll stick with a three dollar Betty Crocker mix.  If your sweet tooth can’t resist Dylan’s, try a multi-tasking, chocolaty indulgence that’s lip-smacking good, skimps on the calories and it’ll let your wallet maintain its weight.  Check out Dylan’s Chocolate Cupcake Lip Saver at Sephora.com.

Brownie Points

Using apple sauce as a substitute for vegetable oil cuts out fatty calories and makes your brownies extra fudgy while saving your waistline from growing regrettably pudgy.  Be sure to read the directions on the side of your boxed brownie mix and/or check your recipe for alternative baking instructions.

According to Dylanscandybar.com, “the first known recipe for brownies was published in the 1897 Sears Roebuck Catalogue”.  “Aging like a fine wine” is considered praise by some.  However, the compliment of “aging like a brownie”, indubitably would be welcomed by none.

Company Crumbs

According to this Crain’s article published in 2008, Dylan’s Candy Bar was expected to have generated revenues of $20 million dollars last year.  Now that’s a whole lotta bon bons!

Chinese government officials showed no love for Love Land. Investors are now at a loss from their "sexcapaid" venture.

If you were hoping to take a fun ride on the “tunnel of love” during your next quickie visit to Chongqing, China you’re plum out of luck. The newly erected sex theme park, Love Land, was demolished by Chinese government officials this past weekend after racy photos of the park were released.

The park’s screwed investor, Lu Xiaoqing, claimed that the sex park was meant to boost libidos and improve people’s sex lives.  The park featured “giant-sized” statues of male and female naughty bits and exhibitions about human sexuality from around the globe.  Rumor has it that the amusement displays gave government honchos major hard-ons, which is only permissible by officials’ concubines and long-term mistresses.

Presumably in China, it’s a problematic eyesore to gaze upon raunchy, phallic statuary.  Yet, the delightful delicacy to munch on bovine penis and donkey dong remains.  Watch this highly professional and informative HotRoast news video about Chinese gonad cuisine.

For those of you desperately seeking  a classy sex ed exhibit , check out the Museum of Sex located in New York City.

Don’t you just love that warm and fuzzy feeling you get all over when you bag an amazing deal?  Okay, maybe you don’t but I sure DO! Ordinarily, I wouldn’t bother blogging about my boring buys but I found a real steal in a brick-and-mortar store in New York City (cheaper than a slice of freakin’ pizza) and had to pass on my savings!

I’m all “warm and fuzzy” over these booties that I bought at Laytner’s Linen & Home Store on Broadway for just TWO BUCKS a pair.  That’s the price of one swipe on your MetroCard and helluva lot cheaper than the “recession special” at Gray’s Papaya.  I have to say, these voluminous, fleece-lined, microfiber booties are only fashionable for the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man (as in GhostBusters fame) but keeping my tootsies cozy during the cold winter months (which seems like most of the year here in the Northeast) is a must.

It really does pay to be patient on purchases (however big or small) and late spring is a terrific time to find steals on items for next fall and winter.  My booties originally retailed for $24.99 and I bought three pairs at $2/each for a total savings of $68.97.  To top it off I snatched up an organic, cotton-sateen, 300 thread count Queen-sized sheet set for just $29.99 (originally marked $59).

Frugalistas and bargain hunters, what’s your latest score?  Please share in the comments section below!

Video interview and update on the current State of the Markets, as well as the overall State of the Economy with Daryl Montgomery of the NY Investing Meetup (interviewed by Alexander Morris of moMoneyTV and PassMeThePork.com).  Watch NOW to learn if there are any opportunities currently offered by the markets.  We have the answers for what’s on everyone’s mind, “Is there any room in the stock market for it to PASS ME THE PORK??!”]]> http://www.vlogolution.com/hot/2009-04-22-any-pork-in-this-stock-market-for-me/feed/ 43 http://www.vlogolution.com/hot/2008-03-03-ron-paul-revolution-radio-interview-with-alexander-paul-morris-about-his-ron-paul-is-a-virus-music-video/ http://www.vlogolution.com/hot/2008-03-03-ron-paul-revolution-radio-interview-with-alexander-paul-morris-about-his-ron-paul-is-a-virus-music-video/#comments Mon, 03 Mar 2008 15:37:41 +0000 http://www.vlogolution.com/hot/?p=357

Alexander is interviewed this morning on Ron Paul Revolution Radio by Al Dellgrottaglia about the “Ron Paul is a Virus” video! Listen to the archived show here.

Taxes Taxes Everywhere and how our wallets did shrink… Even our Savings are Taxed, and in time it won’t even amount to a drink.
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